Yao can see the end of the line
Basketball Betting Lines
07/28/2010 -
Philadelphia, PA - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Your average human being doesn't stand
7-foot-6 and weigh 310 pounds.
In basketball, size among the skilled is the holy grail -- the only thing you
can't teach. But, like anything else, there are pros and cons to having a
talented big man that looks down at the rest of us.
Nearly 15 months ago, the Houston Rockets were battling the Los Angeles Lakers
in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals. Yao Ming dominated, scoring 28
points, including eight in the final four minutes, to lift Houston to an
impressive 100-92 win.
Of course the Lakers responded, but their path to what would be the first of
back-to-back championships was made much easier when Yao was diagnosed with a
sprained ankle after Game 3 of that set.
A follow-up test revealed a hairline fracture in the big man's left foot, and
he was ruled out for the remainder of the playoffs. At the time, Yao
downplayed the injury and a conservative treatment plan was drawn up, calling
for him to cease all physical training and to use a walking boot in order to
immobilize the foot and promote healing.
The prognosis had the foot healing over the summer but the fracture failed to
respond and Yao underwent surgery, putting the playing career of the Rockets'
cornerstone in jeopardy.
For now, the Rockets are expecting Yao to be back for the 2010-11 campaign but
the seven-time All-Star caused quite a stir in his native China on Tuesday,
intimating he would in fact have to consider retiring if the foot fails to
recover.
"If the foot injury does not heal next season I might choose to call it
quits," Yao, who is entering the last year of his contract, said in an
interview with Chinese state media.
The big man had already indicated that his days playing for the Chinese
National team were probably behind him.
"The foot injury will not allow me to play so many games anymore," Yao said.
"Like I said before, I will quit the national team and the sport one day. It's
what happens to every athlete."
It's Yao's prodigious size that makes leg injuries a far more serious subject,
Other talented big men like Sam Bowie, Bill Walton and another former Rocket,
Ralph Sampson, had careers cut short by a seemingly never-ending series of leg
injuries. Meanwhile, current Portland pivot Greg Oden may be heading in a
similar direction.
Yao, an eight-year NBA veteran, has now had three different fractures of the
left foot and a hairline crack of the right leg. He has had five-consecutive
seasons interrupted or ended by some kind of injury.
The Shanghai native did return to the floor in late May and has been going
through full-contact workouts at Toyota Center, buoying the Rockets' spirits.
Meanwhile, Houston general manager Daryl Morey continues to indicate Yao is
indeed on pace to start training camp healthy and on time.
"Yao is on schedule to be available the first day of training camp," Morey
told a Houston newspaper on Tuesday. "He's continued to make positive strides
in his rehab work and all medical reports so far have been positive. He's been
working consistently four to five days a week, and we expect him to be there
when we open camp on September 25th."
A healthy Yao instantly turns the Rockets back into a Western Conference
contender. In fact, a starting lineup featuring the Chinese star along with
Luis Scola, Trevor Ariza, Aaron Brooks and Kevin Martin projects as one of the
NBA's best.
But, projections are just that -- an estimate of future possibilities based on
current events that remain fluid.
And no projection to my knowledge has ever taken into account the doubt that
has crept into the mind of a 7-foot-6, oft-injured former All-Star.
<< CFL Previews - July 29-31 - Week Five
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TORONTO ARGONAUTS (3-1) AT MONTREAL ALOUETTES (3-1)
DATE & TIME: Thursday, July 29, 7:30 p.m. (et).
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Dolphins extend K Carpenter >>
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It's natural to laugh at an
Seahawks agree to terms with Tate >>
Renton, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Seattle Seahawks and second-round draft pick
Golden Tate have agreed to terms on a contract.
Tate confirmed the news via Twitter, posting: "Praise God!!! Terms and
conditions have been reached for th
Devils avoid arbitration with Fraser >>
Newark, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New Jersey Devils have avoided arbitration
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Financial terms were not disclosed.
Fraser had three goals and three assists in 61 games
MySportsbook.com refunds all bets on Oakland, Green Bay and Tampa Bay from NFL week one.
(September 14) – Week one of NFL action saw three teams go scoreless for the first time since 1977. Another four were unable to get a touchdown and almost half of the underdogs covered the spread. Those three teams saved bettors at MySportsbook.com from losing out completely, thanks to the company’s unique NFL Shutout Rule -- which ensures that if the team you backed goes scoreless, your wager is refunded.
Sportsbook refunded tens of thousands of dollars to customers who bet on Oakland, Green Bay and Tampa Bay, the three teams that stunk up the field so badly that their fans and backers never had a chance to get up from their couches and cheer. In the spirit of the low scoring start to the season, odds makers at the world’s largest online sportsbook and casino have set odds on how many total shutouts there will be this season.
MySportsbook.com has posted updated sports betting lines for week two of the season. Ben Roethlisberger’s health status is still questionable, so Willie Parker will try to lead Pittsburgh again as they travel to Jacksonville as a one point favorite. After beating up on his little brother last week, Peyton Manning will look to lead the Colts to victory against Houston. Indianapolis is a whopping 13.5 favorite in the match-up.
Seattle, last year’s highest scoring team, showed the power of their defense with their gritty 9-6 win in Motown over the ravenous Lions. They take their act back home to the comforts of Qwest Field where they will face the resurgent Arizona Cardinals. The Seahawks are favored by a touchdown.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Bonds nearly hits HR 751, SF wins
4 and drove in
a pair of runs, and Barry Bonds nearly hit homer No. 751 as San Francisco beat
1, in the middle contest of three at AT&T Park.
6) allowed five hits and one run over 6 2/3 innings, fanning
eight and walking three.
game slide.
Bonds, who came within five homers of Hank Aaron's record on Friday, went
1 with three walks, an RBI double and scored twice. The double ...
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